On the afternoon of September 6, Nguyễn Văn Hưởng, Head of the Weather Forecasting Department at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, stated that current conditions are quite favorable for the development of the tropical depression.
Sea surface temperatures in the northern part of the East Sea, particularly above 15 degrees North latitude, are currently at 29-30°C. In the area where the tropical depression is active, wind shear is low, and the southwest winds to the south are relatively strong.
As a result, the likelihood of this tropical depression intensifying into a storm is estimated at 70-80%.
Forecasts indicate that during the evening and night of September 6, the tropical depression will strengthen into a storm.
If it does intensify, this will be the 16th storm in the Northwest Pacific this year and the seventh to form in the East Sea, with the international name Tapah.
This tropical depression or storm has formed in the northern part of the East Sea, while the subtropical high-pressure ridge—which typically determines the path and movement of tropical depressions and storms—is showing signs of weakening.
The tropical depression or storm is currently located on the western edge of the subtropical high-pressure ridge. Following the prevailing path, the storm is expected to move mainly in a northwesterly direction.
With this trajectory, the likelihood of the storm moving deep into Vietnam’s mainland is low; instead, it is more likely to make landfall in China.
"At present, international storm forecasting centers predict that this storm will make landfall in Guangdong Province (China) on September 8. Upon landfall, the storm’s intensity could reach level 10-11, with gusts up to level 13-14," Nguyễn Văn Hưởng said.
"Vietnam’s forecast is quite consistent with international predictions. We expect that during the evening and night of September 6, this tropical depression will strengthen into a storm (Storm No. 7).
Its maximum intensity, as it approaches the coastal area of Guangdong Province (China), will reach level 10, with gusts up to level 13, and it is expected to make landfall in China around the morning and midday of September 8," Nguyễn Văn Hưởng emphasized.
Nguyễn Văn Hưởng also noted that although the storm will make landfall in China, it is expected to quickly weaken into a low-pressure area after landfall.
It will then move westward toward Vietnam, and from the afternoon and night of September 9-11, the remnants of Storm No. 7 are likely to bring widespread heavy rain to northern Vietnam, with the heaviest rainfall expected in the midland and northeastern mountainous regions.
(Source: Vietnam News Agency/Vietnam+)
